{ "schema_version": 1, "generated_on": "2026-09-27", "title": "Global AI-compute supply-chain evidence layer", "purpose": "Assemble public evidence relevant to Track 3 accounting of pre-deal compute production, sales, ownership and physical end use without treating aggregate estimates as transaction-level proof.", "status_semantics": { "INGESTED_SNAPSHOT": "Repository contains a dated source snapshot or derived table.", "PUBLIC_OFFICIAL_SOURCE": "Official public source is cataloged but not ingested transaction-level data.", "PARTIAL": "Some chain elements are represented; complete reconciliation is not possible from the retained public source.", "UNKNOWN": "A numeric/global closure cannot be computed without missing transaction or inspection data." }, "current": { "owner_cumulative_rows": 215, "distinct_owners": 10, "sales_timeline_rows": 160, "sales_organization_rows": 12, "sales_chip_type_rows": 36, "distinct_chip_types": 25, "component_by_chip_rows": 102, "component_by_designer_rows": 43, "supply_denominator_quarters": 8, "user_year_end_rows": 11, "user_labs": 5, "global_transaction_level_closure": "UNKNOWN", "current_untraced_pool": "UNKNOWN", "bis_export_accounting_source": "PUBLIC_OFFICIAL_SOURCE" }, "source_layers": [ { "id": "EPOCH_OWNER_CUMULATIVE", "status": "INGESTED_SNAPSHOT", "repository_paths": [ "data/external/epoch_ai/ai_chip_owners_cumulative_by_designer.csv", "data/external/epoch_ai/ai_chip_owners_cumulative_by_chip_type.csv" ], "role": "Aggregate organization/owner snapshots; cumulative rows overlap in time and must not be summed across dates." }, { "id": "EPOCH_SALES_TIMELINE", "status": "INGESTED_SNAPSHOT", "repository_path": "data/external/epoch_ai/ai_chip_sales_timelines_by_chip.csv", "role": "Quarter/chip estimated unit and H100e flows; not invoices, serial records, or guaranteed shipments." }, { "id": "EPOCH_SALES_ORGS", "status": "INGESTED_SNAPSHOT", "repository_path": "data/external/epoch_ai/ai_chip_sales_organizations.csv", "role": "Publisher organization/chip-designer scope." }, { "id": "EPOCH_USERS", "status": "INGESTED_SNAPSHOT", "repository_paths": [ "data/external/epoch_ai/ai_chip_users_year_end_by_lab.csv", "data/external/epoch_ai/ai_chip_users_intermediates_by_lab.csv" ], "role": "Organization-level user snapshots; physical location linkage remains separate." }, { "id": "EPOCH_COMPONENTS", "status": "INGESTED_SNAPSHOT", "repository_paths": [ "data/external/epoch_ai/ai_chip_components_quarterly_by_chip.csv", "data/external/epoch_ai/ai_chip_components_quarterly_by_designer.csv", "data/external/epoch_ai/ai_chip_components_supply_denominators.csv" ], "role": "Upstream component-supply and implied production constraints." }, { "id": "NVIDIA_SEC_2026", "status": "PUBLIC_OFFICIAL_SOURCE", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm", "role": "Current public disclosure of direct/indirect customer structure, product scope, geography and controlled-compute export exposure." }, { "id": "TSMC_ANNUAL_2025", "status": "PUBLIC_OFFICIAL_SOURCE", "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/static/annualReports/2025/english/index.html", "role": "Upstream manufacturing/packaging capacity context and global manufacturing footprint." }, { "id": "US_CENSUS_TRADE", "status": "PUBLIC_OFFICIAL_SOURCE", "url": "https://www.census.gov/data/developers/data-sets/international-trade.html", "role": "Public U.S. merchandise import/export data by HS code, geography, quantity/value and shipping information; commodity classifications are broader than individual accelerator models." }, { "id": "GLEIF_LEVEL2", "status": "PUBLIC_OFFICIAL_SOURCE", "url": "https://www.gleif.org/en/lei-data/access-and-use-lei-data/level-2-data-who-owns-whom", "role": "Global legal-entity identity plus direct/ultimate parent relationships." }, { "id": "GLEIF_DAILY_2026_09_25", "status": "PUBLIC_OFFICIAL_SOURCE", "url": "https://www.gleif.org/en/lei-data/gleif-concatenated-file/download-the-concatenated-file", "role": "Latest public Level 1/Level 2 files available 2026-09-25 in the current web check." }, { "id": "SEC_EXHIBIT_21", "status": "PUBLIC_OFFICIAL_SOURCE", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/", "role": "Issuer subsidiary lists and corporate-family evidence for public companies." }, { "id": "EU_WEEE", "status": "PUBLIC_OFFICIAL_SOURCE", "url": "https://environment.ec.europa.eu/topics/waste-and-recycling/waste-electrical-and-electronic-equipment-weee/implementation-weee-directive_en", "role": "Official WEEE collection/reuse/recycling reporting context relevant to decommissioning/attrition modeling." }, { "id": "BIS_ADVANCED_COMPUTE_2026", "status": "PUBLIC_OFFICIAL_SOURCE", "url": "https://www.bis.gov/media/documents/bis-guidance-may-31-2026.pdf", "role": "Current U.S. advanced-computing export/end-user/accounting control interface. Useful for tracing controlled-item movements and facility-level accounting requirements, but not a global serial ledger." } ], "chain_model": [ { "stage": 1, "name": "Production", "inputs": [ "logic_wafers", "advanced_packaging", "HBM", "auxiliary_components" ], "output": "finished_accelerator_production_estimate" }, { "stage": 2, "name": "Sale", "inputs": [ "vendor_production", "sales_records" ], "output": "direct_customer_delivery_record" }, { "stage": 3, "name": "Transfer/resale", "inputs": [ "customer_delivery", "resale_or_transfer_records" ], "output": "current_recipient_record" }, { "stage": 4, "name": "Current owner", "inputs": [ "entity_resolution", "legal_relationships" ], "output": "auditable_owner" }, { "stage": 5, "name": "Physical location", "inputs": [ "owner_records", "site_evidence", "inspection" ], "output": "physical_end_use" }, { "stage": 6, "name": "Disposition", "inputs": [ "current_inventory", "decommissioning", "recycling", "destruction" ], "output": "verified_terminal_state" } ], "closure_requirements": [ "Every pre-deal production estimate needs a source/date and unit definition.", "Every direct sale used in deterministic audit needs a vendor-recipient relation.", "Every resale/transfer needs source and destination entities where recorded.", "Current-owner identity must resolve through the entity graph.", "Physical end use requires site evidence or authorized inspection; company-level ownership is not enough.", "Decommissioning requires recycler/destruction corroboration or remains in the residual pool." ], "public_source_limit": "No public source found in this pass provides a globally exhaustive transaction-level serial-number ledger of all AI accelerators. Therefore a complete numeric global untraced-compute value cannot honestly be filled from public data alone.", "external_handoff_artifact": "data/track3/external_capability_handoff_2026-09-28.json", "updated_on": "2026-09-28" }